Dickey Marches Toward 20

As crazy as it is to say RA Dickey may very well be a Cy Young winner this season. 

It’s tough to get the votes when you don’t make the postseason but if he wins 20 AND leads the NL in W’s he stands a helluva chance at actually winning.

You gotta figure being a knuckler and the media surrounding his story will help net him votes. Playing in NY never hurts media awareness of an athlete but in this case I think RA’s story outweighs the NY factor.

According to my math he could have 4-5 more starts this year which means he could post 22 Wins… !

How freakin’ crazy would THAT be!

16 Responses to “Dickey Marches Toward 20”

  1. Phantom Says:

    I am so proud of this guy.

    Even the Yankee fans around the office are rooting for him, big time.

  2. OptimistBlondiesJake Says:

    I agree his story helps, but statistically right now he’s better than all of them anyway. His competition is Cueto and Gonzalez and when you compare Ws, ERA, Ks and WHIP, Dickey is the best overall.

    I will disagree, however, that winning team has anything to do with it. It’s not the MVP award and plenty of pitchers on losing teams have won it, including Felix Hernandez a few years ago when he barely had any wins because his team was so lousy and he beat out Sabathia, who had a bunch of wins on a playoff team.

  3. Lord Charles Says:

    ^IDK if he is that much more statistically dominant than all of them. Right now there are 5 pitchers in the NL with an fWAR of 4.4 or greater: Dickey, Gonzalez, Cueto, Kershaw, and Strasburg. Of those 5, Dickey ranks 2nd in IP, 4th in K/9, 2nd in BB/9, last in HR/9, 2nd in ERA, 4th in FIP, 3rd in xFIP and last in WAR. Of the 5, the guy who has the best resume is Strasburg (1st in K/9, FIP and xFIP), but since he is essentially done for the season, he has no shot to win.

  4. Lord Charles Says:

    That being said, I do think the fact that Dickey is a knuckleballer should play into the vote a bit. I could care less about the story, but the fact that a guy could have the BB/9 and K/BB rates that he does, while throwing a knuckleball ~90% of the time indicates a level of mastery that is very rare.

  5. OptimistBlondiesJake Says:

    LC, of course your analysis based on WAR is correct but 95% of the voters still don’t even know what that means. If Dickey wins 20+ and doesn’t blow up ERA-wise he will win it. And I bet he takes the ball and pitches his last regular turn even if he’s “ahead.” And yes, that’s the final shot I’ll take at Reyes for last year’s embarrassment.

  6. Lord Charles Says:

    ^Agreed, especially when you consider that Dickey has 20 more IP than Gio and will probably be 60-70 innings greater than Strasburg. And even ignoring wins, a guy with 230 IP and an ERA under 3.00 will almost always be a legit Cy Young winner.

  7. CW Says:

    I think the knuckleball factor could work against him. Many voters still consider it a “gimmick” pitch and I think he’ll have distance himself from the competition in order for them to give it to a knuckler.

    And why is no one mentioning Chapman? He leads the league in saves and has these ridiculous #s (followed by Dickey’s # in parenthesis):
    ERA: 1.23 (2.64)
    WHIP: 0.7123 (1.025)
    K’s/9: 16 (8.9)
    K/BB ratio: 6.88 (4.33)

    I think a reliever has to be “off the charts” good to win the CY Young, but if you consider Dickey the favorite, and Chapman completely dominates him in every above catagory, doesn’t he at least belong in the conversation?

    Maybe Strasburg and Gonzalez split the Washington vote, and Cueto and Chapman split the Cincinnati vote the way Straw and K-Mac split the NY vote in “88 when they handed the MVP to Gibson. Only Dickey will be more deserving than Gibson was.

  8. Lord Charles Says:

    ^I think this is where WAR/SABR does come into play. Like Jake, I agree that a large number of writers are still loathe to use advanced stats to separate one starter from an other, but they do recognize the importance of innings pitched (i.e. outs) and who that relates to value (and WAR). As such, even though Chapman’s K/9, K/BB, and ERA+ are better than Eric Gange’s were in 2003, I don’t think he has any shot at the CYA. And in that same breathe, steroids aside, I don’t think voters today would give Gange the CYA considering his WAR (3.6) was well behind those of Mark Prior (7.2) and Jason Schmidt (6.4).

  9. OptimistBlondiesJake Says:

    I agree a reliever have to be off the charts with his numbers. And while Chapman has great numbers, he isn’t perfect or close to perfect in saves, which hurts a lot. Plus, even when they are off the charts and close to perfect, they generally only win when there aren’t great starters in the running, and clearly that isn’t the case this year.

  10. Irish Mike Says:

    To those of you looking for a new post today (and perhaps all weekend) please excuse BMF - he and his beautiful wife became first time parents this morning to a healthy baby boy.

  11. OptimistBlondiesJake Says:

    Congrats to BMF, his lovely bride and baby boy!

  12. Lord Charles Says:

    Awesome, congrats BMF and fam!

  13. joeybrooklyn1976 Says:

    congrats BMF!

  14. the dude formerly known as bill l. Says:

    WoW! Congrats and best wishes.

  15. Met_Maven Says:

    Congrats to Mr. & Mrs. BMF on BMF Jr.

  16. foxster Says:

    best wishes. can he play Left Field?

Leave a Reply

Return home