Reyes Really Might Be Batting Champ

It’s finally starting to become real to me - Jose Reyes - a true blue NY Met may actually win the NL batting title.

Never before has a Met led the league in avg so in my mind I’ve enjoyed Jose sitting atop the pile but still being there after 162 are played has always felt like a distant dream.

Only now the dream is within site. 

It’s September 1st which means we’re coming down the home stretch. Jose has a .003 lead over Ryan Braun and there’s no reason to think he can’t maintain a lead.

Braun is in a pennant race which could go either way. Teams could pitch him tougher or he could be more focused in his AB’s. 

But MIL is a comfortable 8.5 games ahead of StLoo so they may be in cruise control down the stretch.

Jose on the other hand has a new contract at hand which should keep him as focused as ever.

If nothing else it gives us fans a reason to tune in from now until game 162.

***

As for the game Capuano looked like a pumpkin to start the 1st but settled down very nicely go get the Win.

Duda is Da Mana - he proved it again with a go ahead hit in the 7th — love this kid!

Parnell closed the door - love seeing that too!

Am I supposed to be excited or encouraged by Bay’s 3 hits? … Well, I’m not.

29 Responses to “Reyes Really Might Be Batting Champ”

  1. Lord Charles Says:

    Is there a more hollow crown than the one for batting champ?

  2. Florida Met Fan Rich Says:

    Acosta got the wim!…We took a series from the fish!….Now lets rub it in and squish them

  3. IrishMike Says:

    LC - the sabremetrics crowd believes that but the batting champ title has carried a lot of weight for decades and I don’t think that its cache’ has disappeared just yet nor will it too soon. From Ty Cobb in the early 20th century to Tony Gwynn in the late 20th century the guys who win multiple batting titles are looked at VERY favorably by history. And if Jose Reyes (or Ryan Braun or whoever) wins six of the next eight titles so will they.

    As advanced metrics are recognized by more people the batting title will lose repect and indeed it has started already. Reyes possible title is pretty hollow though I agree but I think that is mostly because the Mets are mediocre at best and he has missed major chunks of time and thus his momentum in the public eye keeps waning.

  4. BlondiesJake Says:

    It would be nice for Reyes to win the batting title, irregardless of its significance.

    I’m guessing BrooklynBill will post today about how Murphy still leads the team in RBIs (49 in 109 games). Of course, Beltran was traded and he was way ahead of Murphy with 66. Plus, Ike only played 36 games and had 25 RBIs before getting hurt and Wright has only played 75 games and is now just five behind (44). We all know about Bay’s struggles (44 in 103) and Duda has played 30 less games but is only 10 RBIs behind with 39. Not to mention Murphy spent plenty of time, thanks to injuries and poor performance, in a prime RBI spot in the lineup. But hey, BB, keep posting that statement, without context it seems like something to harp on incessantly.

  5. Lord Charles Says:

    I agree, IM. I think what irks me a bit is that more there is still more emphasis on BA, than there is OBP or OPS. The last 10 MLB BA Champs (Walker, Bonds, Pujols, Suzuki, Lee, Mauer, Ordonez, C. Jones, Mauer, Hamilton) is certainly a tremendous list of players, but, IMO, it is eclipsed by the list of OBP (Bonds, Bonds, Bonds, Bonds, Helton, M. Ramierez, Ortiz, C. Jones, Mauer, Votto) and OPS (Bonds, Bonds, Bonds, Bonds, Lee, Pujols, ARod, Pujols, Pujols, Hamilton). I will be much more excited when the first Met wins an OBP or OPS title.

    RBI titles are another one that are kind of silly as an individual award. Yes, the history of RBI titles is littered with HoFers, but so much of leading the league in RBI has to do with opportunities not created by the actual “run producer,” and great players are generally put in a position to maximize their exposure to those opportunities.

  6. IrishMike Says:

    LC I agree but I have to believe that it will be a long time before members of the media start talking about the OPS race. Like maybe 60 years. The reason is partly because the media is too lazy to understand advanced stats or to try to talk about something newfangled like OPS but it’s also because baseball relies so much on contextual history. Everyone knows how many (ish) batting titles Ty Cobb, Wade Boggs, Rod Carew and Tony Gwynn won. No one has the slightest clue who was winning OPS titles in the 40’s 50’s…80’s 90’s so there is no historical comparison available. And baseball is all about historical comparisons.

  7. Lord Charles Says:

    I agree that no one has any clue about the historical winners, but the info is not hard to get:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/onbase_plus_slugging_leagues.shtml

    And I was wrong up above, the Mets already have had an OPS/OPS+ champ: Strawberry in 1988 (.911/165). Just adds more to the argument that Kirk Gibson was the 3rd most ridiculous MVP in the last 30 years (Ekersley - ‘90, Pendleton - ‘91).

  8. IrishMike Says:

    But Kirk Gibson yelled at Jesse Orosco in spring training that year! That was huge! So what if he didn’t really do much on the field?! He had a great attitude! It was infectious! He was a good football player too!

  9. Lord Charles Says:

    Oh yeah, I forgot that Gibson led the league in GASP (Grit Above Star Performance)…

  10. Florida Met Fan Rich Says:

    Can somebody please explain to me why we have some 40 y/o guy pitching tonight when we have just added (or could add) 15 young minor leaguers today.

    Are we planning for the future or not?

  11. the dude formerly known as bill l. Says:

    I had an aunt who used to be into the “world language” of Esperanto. It seemed like the next great thing in like the 1940’s; the enthusiasts, and there were many, seemed to think that it would only be a matter of time before everyone was speaking it. Then I remember in high school how everyone kept talking about how we were all going to start using the metric system really soon– remember the metric equivalents on the outfield fences in MLB parks? Well, while I agree with the idea that there are better barometers of offensive talent than BA or RBI’s, I agree with IM that it’s unlikely that any of them will supplant the traditional stats any time soon. Ĉu vi parolas Esperanton? Right, me neither.

  12. Lord Charles Says:

    FMFR,

    To be fair, the Mets really don’t have any younger prospects who are ready (or healthy). Harvey, Familia, Mejia and Wheeler all have the potential to be exciting, but none are ready yet.

    tdfkabl,

    Yeah, I definitely concede that BA and RBI are going to be around for the long haul, but I am encouraged by the fact that ESPN, at least, is starting to include OPS on the stats that flash during each players AB. I’d also add that because the internet provides a voice to so many more people, it does increase the odds, perhaps on slightly, that data will win out over tradition.

  13. USMF Says:

    As much as I appreciate saber stats…the BA title is still an important title to have. If you have two players with a OBP of .380 and one guy who’s BA is .270 and the others is .333, I’d rather get the guy who gets the bat on the ball…it’s hard to get into scoring position and knock in runners with a walk.

    But so people know, Reyes has a OPS of .881, which is top 15 in the NL and really good for a guy who doesn’t hit HR’.

    I do like the OPS much better OBP…look at it this way, in 09, Castillo had a OBP of .387 which is pretty good, but his SLG .346 making his OBP a pitiful .732.

    So how much value did Castillo really have? There were plenty of guys whose OBP was much lower than Castillo, but did Slappy McSingleton really add anything that helped win a game?

    I see two problems with Saber Stats…

    Problem #1, people don’t fully understand them and many try to look at one or two categories to summarize a players value. Truthfully, you have to look at all the stats, compare to the rest of the players in that position and then compare with like players.

    Reyes may be 13th in the NL in OBP, but 2nd in the NL for SS…that’s pretty good.

    Normally, it’s not fair to compare a lead off hitter to a 3-5 hitter, a lead off hitter gets on base OBP and SB’s and base running is more important, but the middle of the line up guys are there to hit HR’s and drive runners in. You gotta use different metrics to measure the players value.

    My 2nd problem is, the value is placed biased on who developed the stat and what they felt is valuable. Some stats don’t even agree with the others…WAR is a great example of a stat that is biased on what someone thought was a value.

    A few years ago (as I was teaching myself MS Excel) I created my own stat to measure a players value…(I know, very geeky) but the overall result favored what I felt was an important to winning a game.

    OBP is a nice stat, but it favors the power hitters and not the speed guys…Sure, Ortiz can hit plenty of extra base hits, but it takes a triple to score him from 2nd…Reyes can get a base hit, steal 2nd and/or 3rd and score easily from either base on a single.

    If you factor in stats like SB (while subtracting in CS) players like Reyes value would shoot way up.

  14. the dude formerly known as bill l. Says:

    USMF: so, tell us your stat already. Don’t leave us hanging?

    Hey, I don’t know about anybody else, but I LOVE the fact that this Einhorn deal appears to be dead. It seemed to me the way it was reported anyway, was that the deal absolutely made it seem like it would just have been in Einhorn’s interest to watch the team suck for a couple of years until he could take over. Now maybe the Wilpons have a chance at acquiring a partner that might actually end up rooting for the team he’s investing in, and not see the stake as a means to takeover.

  15. ProfessorReyes Says:

    “Normally, it’s not fair to compare a lead off hitter to a 3-5 hitter, a lead off hitter gets on base OBP and SB’s and base running is more important, but the middle of the line up guys are there to hit HR’s and drive runners in. You gotta use different metrics to measure the players value.”
    Excellent point USMF.

    BMF you could go through and compare each one’s stats against the pitchers they will face through the end, and you still might not get a reliable peek into the future. I’ll just enjoy the ride, but Reyes has to get those minimum games in.

    My son’s grandmother got him and his dad box seats to the 9/11 game!

  16. Lord Charles Says:

    “Truthfully, you have to look at all the stats, compare to the rest of the players in that position and then compare with like players.”

    Completely agree, but that doesn’t preclude some stats from having more value than others. The way I look at it (and I can’t take credit for this as original, but I forget the source), BA is equal to H divided by AB. OBP is equal to H+BB+IBB+HBP divided by AB+BB+IBB+HBP+SF. So basically OBP is just BA plus a lot more information. And OPS is even better still, though it is a bit redundant and really should be OBP + ISO, not OBP + SLG. But again, you are right, to really see what a player has done at the plate, you need to look at the entire BA/OBP/SLG slashes.

    “My 2nd problem is, the value is placed biased on who developed the stat and what they felt is valuable.”

    I sort of agree, but those biases are based off of interpretations of statistical evidence. Yes, there are discrepancies in fWAR and bWAR, but they are small, and in generally, don’t impact overall rankings. I’d also add that WAR does factor speed, which is why guys like Reyes, Gardner and Maybin are all ranked in the Top 35 in the MLB this year in WAR.

  17. ProfessorReyes Says:

    p.s. I didn’t expect repeat from Cappy but those first two innings were painful! Add to it that the bottom 1st and 2nd we went down 1-2-3, so he had no break at all between innings. Decent comeback to stop the bleeding, some really good defense at the end there, too.

  18. IrishMike Says:

    Great email USMF. And the Ortiz line cracked me up. I enjoy the advanced stats and think they are very important. but they do require context - by position in the field, by position in the batting order etc. And you are right that many stats are created to confirm a pre-determined outcome or can be manipulated to do the same.

    And I still think that some of the traditional stats have more value than the new wave of stat geeks wants to admit. Best examples to me is pitching wins and losses which are being thrown in the trash in favor of WHIP and such. That’s all well and good but WHIP lives in a vacuum separate from the game situation and other factors. Let’s say a starter has a 7-0 lead after six and knows it is important to give the team two more innings - bullpen needs a break, double header tomorrow whatever. He starts throwing fastballs for strikes knowing someone may drill one but with a 7-0 lead it’s okay. so he gives up a few hits and a run in each inning and leaves the game with a 9-2 lead. Meanwhile his WHIP (and ERA) took a hit. Had he decided to nibble and dance and only pitch one more inning without giving up any hits or runs he could have. But he knew the win was in the bag and did right by his team rather than some advanced stat. That still matters IMO.

  19. IrishMike Says:

    PS just heard on the (real, not some NYP or NYDN hack) news that the Mets deal with David Einhorn has fallen through. So much for that influx of fresh cash. From him anyway.

  20. Lord Charles Says:

    ^^I actually think WHIP is kind of a silly stat. Per inning? Who cares? Should be either per AB (which is basically just OBPA) or per 9 innings, like ERA. I do agree that there will be times when a pitcher “takes one for the team,” but over a 200-230 IP season, the effect of those data on the overall set should be relatively negligible.

  21. USMF Says:

    DFKNB- don’t ask me what the stat was…it was a long time ago…but I seem to remember I factored in total bases, OBP, SB’s, Runs and RBI’s and I gave extra value to things like 2 out RBIs and late/close hit’s and things of that sort. Now I will honest, it was around the time that people was arguing if Wright/Reyes was a better combo than A-Roid/Jeter so I probably designed the stat to value Wright and Reyes strengths.

    You know, we could go even deeper into this debate. Wrights best years he was hitting behind a very productive Beltran and Delgado and had pretty decent protection behind him in the lineup. Once that went away, Wrights value dropped. I don’t know of any stat that factors in the other hitters in the line up. that’s something you have to watch first hand over a long season to understand.

    ERA is funny…a Relief Pitchers ERA can be very skewed, he may let 75% of inherited runners score, but still have a low ERA. Same affects the starting pitcher. You leave runners on base, then you’re ERA is greatly effected by how good the reliever is who is bailing you out.

    How many games have we seen in the past few years that one error in the field opens the door to 3-4 runs? While, because of the error, those runs don’t affect the ERA. But the pitcher still gave up the 3run bomb that let the runs score.

    I pitched a game last Sunday…I had 5 very good-great innings 1-2-3 innings. the other 3 weren’t so good.

    I saw the bases get loaded after two errors and a ball that should have been easily caught. OK, so now I got the bases loaded and one out…I should be in the dugout, but instead I’m in a jam. I grove a fastball which gets hit as a bases clearing dbl…that’s three runs…wouldn’t effect my ERA, but aren’t those runs my fault anyways?

    Later in the game, same type of scenario… because of the bases loaded (from errors) and no outs, the infield is playing in…(two) hard ground balls to 2nd, if the infield is playing normal depth, that would have be easy out or dbl play…but instead that ball made it to the OF and Runs scored. Whose fault was it?

    I like what Sandy has said, while they look at stats, you still have to see the player to really know how good they are.

    I still haven’t seen the stat that factors in what the threat of Reyes stealing has on the opposing pitcher… we all see it happening, but you can’t really measure it.

  22. IrishMike Says:

    Right on USMF. I can’t stand the immunity deal that pitchers get with inherited runners and even more so with the “there should have been three outs so nothing you do now will hurt your ERA” scenario.

  23. Lord Charles Says:

    “I can’t stand the immunity deal that pitchers get with inherited runners and even more so with the “there should have been three outs so nothing you do now will hurt your ERA” scenario. ”

    Ditto, and also the situations when a Pelfrey, I mean pitcher, walks the 8 and 9 hitters, only to be bailed out by his defense… FIP and xFIP do a pretty good job accounting for this, albeit, not perfect.

  24. Lord Charles Says:

    “I like what Sandy has said, while they look at stats, you still have to see the player to really know how good they are.”

    As much as I like stats, I do completely agree with this. In someways, baseball is like medicine: just because that data says that drug A is the best, that doesn’t remove the doctor’s responsibility from monitoring the patient’s progress with his own eyes.

  25. ProfessorReyes Says:

    I love these jerseys.

  26. Florida Met Fan Rich Says:

    I love those jerseys also….get rid of the los and pick me up an extra large please

    Pat Misch should be pitching tonight instead of this washed up 40 y/o bum!!!

  27. BrooklynBil Says:

    On Sep 1st, Murph is still the RBI King.

    Quick, someone do the math: what’s the $$/per RBI for Murph, Bay, and Wright?? I’m no good at math.

  28. IrishMike Says:

    B-Bill you bring this up every 5 seconds. What is your point?

  29. BlondiesJake Says:

    Thanks BrooklynBill, I didn’t want to be wrong with my prediction toward the top of this thread that you would bring that up again today.

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