Wright Poised to Be Better Than Ever

All along I’ve been concerned about potential longterm effects to Wright’s back, but if there is no arthritis I think this Dal stint may be the best thing for David’s career.

For once he wasn’t in the middle of a Met firestorm. The kid has been carrying the weight of the franchise on his shoulders for years. Everything Mets points to him at all times - except now he’s finally gotten a break, forced to sit, watch and think about how he approaches the game on/off the field.

So maybe, just maybe Wright returns and gets back to simply playing ball and having fun.

All told the Mets are in a great place right now, the fans aren’t booing and the media doesnt hate them. Recent years has produced ugly, negative, controversial teams but under Collins there’s none of that. 

Instead we’ve got a scrappy squad the fans are actually liking and rooting for. 

I’m just sayin’

It’s 100 degrees today !

53 Responses to “Wright Poised to Be Better Than Ever”

  1. BlondiesJake Says:

    I hope u r right about Wright. But I’d still deal him for Jimenez.

  2. Florida Met Fan Rich Says:

    You meant to say “The fans are not booing YET!” What is going to happen if they trade everybody away in the next 10 days?

    We need to restock our whole farm system with pitching.

    Boy wouldn’t it be a great boost if Wright starts out hot.

    Please lets “Sqish the Fish” while they are down and take this series from them!

    Was hoping to see David Wright at the Mets single A
    game vs the Brevard County Manatees last night, but he did not play.

    Lets go Mets!

  3. CowCrusher Says:

    Saw the Bisons/Chiefs game last night….look out for Luis Hernandez @ 2B….a scrappy little guy that has a hot bat…and a hot wife to boot! :-)

  4. BlondiesJake Says:

    FMFR, let the “fans” boo after the Mets make deals. People who want to see this team truly succeed understand what needs to be done.

  5. ProfessorReyes Says:

    91 degrees at 10:30 here.

    Good point BMF, Wright coming back after the bubble pops is good for him, nobody’s looking at his strikeouts or blaming him for staying at the 500 mark. He has to have ants in his pants tho.
    Also agree with FMFR, I think we’re all waiting to see what Alderson does and god help him if the fans don’t like it.

  6. cleonjones Says:

    Lets go Mets !!! Lets take two out of three from the Marlins.

  7. Fort Greene Met Fan Says:

    It’s almost too hot to comment—but I will say that BMF, I hope you’re right!!

  8. Lord Charles Says:

    Over/under for Wright’s season HR total: 15

    I’ll take the over.

    In 2007 he hit 12 from August 1 on. In 2008, he hit 13, and last year he hit 12. (2009, obviously, was a disaster). If he can use the rest of July to get acclimated, I could see him hitting 10 HRs the last two months.

  9. Lord Charles Says:

    Also, I don’t know if this was intentional, but Wright’s career stats in FLA and CIN are really good (BA/OPS):

    at FLA: .317/.885

    at CIN: . 343/1.142

    Definitely seems like a good way for him to get back in a groove quickly.

  10. USMF Says:

    I think that Wright can see that the team can win without him and he doesn’t have to put too much pressure on himself to carry the team.

    To be a successfully baseball player, you need to relax, feel conferable and be confident. When Wright had LosD and LosB doing a lot of heavy lifting, the Wright was all those things and did great…once the focused centered on him, he fell a part.

  11. Met_Maven Says:

    I’m really glad the Mets are getting Wright back this weekend! I was worried something would happen and he’d be out till next season. Hopefully he’s batting 5 - 6 in the lineup. This way he’s in the middle, doesn’t have that much pressure on him to preform and, hopefully, can get into a nice groove early. I’m going to be in DC next weekend for the Mets series. Can’t wait to see him in person!

    As for the fans who will inevitably boo when Bletran and whomever else may be traded and the team is struggling, I say let them boo. They are either casual fans who don’t understand this team is getting better or are just people who are only happy when they can complain.

    Here’s to a 6-4 road trip and the happy return of #5!

    LETS GO METS GO!

  12. JoMama Says:

    Gorgeous weather here - 75 degrees, light wind from the west and ~5% humidity - summer in Seattle ;)

    BMF - I concur, nothing to be pessimistic about now, whatever happens, this team doesn’t quit and looks better each month. LETS GO METS!

  13. BrooklynBill Says:

    Does Wright end up in a lefty/righty platoon with Murphy? Wright feasts on LHs, turns into Rey Ordonez vs RHs…hoping it had something to do with the back but, prob not since it’s been a trend for a while. I think TC has to find a way to get Murph’s bat in the lineup everyday somewhere…especially against RHs.

    Here’s hoping Sandy makes all the right moves and we can win 25-30 more games this year…that would make the Dog Days of Summer a little more interesting.

  14. Lord Charles Says:

    “Does Wright end up in a lefty/righty platoon with Murphy? Wright feasts on LHs, turns into Rey Ordonez vs RHs”

    No, no, a million times no.

    Murphy’s career OPS vs. RHP: .781

    Wright’s career OPS vs. RHP: .848

    In a LH/RH platoon, the RH usually gets much less AB, so were going to take the Mets best hitter and relegate him to playing maybe 2x a week? Murphy is a nice role player; Wright is an All-Star.

  15. BrooklynBill Says:

    He also has 2 gold gloves but fans who watch no better.

    Last few years he’s been jekyll & hyde, the split is pretty wide.

  16. Lord Charles Says:

    “Last few years he’s been jekyll & hyde, the split is pretty wide.”

    This is true, but even with that split, he is still better versus RHP than Murphy is.

  17. Fort Greene Met Fan Says:

    Sorry—I’m not paying $$ to come to the ballpark to see Daniel Murphy play. Puh-leeeez! Even Terry Collins said point blank on the radio that Murphy is a role player who belongs on the bench.

    Also: I hate the matchup.

  18. KMac Says:

    Murph will play 1B when David comes back. When Ike comes back he moves to 2B. Duda, Turner and Tejada will have to fight for the back up spots.

  19. BrooklynBill Says:

    I’m not liking the matchup either. However, what do we do if the DW coming off the DL is the same strikeout king he was before he went on the DL?

    Career OPS is better, yes. But take a look at the rate of Ks, avg, and slugging over the last few years. Against RHs, DW is reduced to a much lighter offensive player.

  20. BrooklynBill Says:

    For some reason, he has not been the same player from 07 on. 09 was a complete disaster. He had a torrid Sept to salvage 2010, and he wasn’t exactly tearing the cover off the ball before he went on the DL this year.

    Don’t get me wrong, I like Wright, he is home grown. But, I also think his split stats over the years have been widening and the rate of Ks seems to be exponentially growing…makes me wonder whether next few weeks are showcasing him as trade bait or not. I think he is absolutely expendable.

    Why all the hate on Murph? He’s been in the top 10 in NL batting avg for a while now, he’s only K’d 35 times in 339 ABs (DW 43 Ks in 146 2011 ABs so far, btw) Plays multiple positions, albeit so-so but serviceable. And probably best of all, he’s cheap…good Moneyball material if you’re Sandy Alderson. In any trade scenario seems to me Murph is the keeper, Wright not as much.

  21. IrishMike Says:

    B-Bill I think you are overrating Murph. He is not even a so-so fielder. He maybe so-so at 3rd but he’s weak at 2nd, awful at 1st and unusable in the OF. And he is not a moneyball guy either because he doesn’t walk. His OBP is awful considering his batting average. In short he is Danny Heep.

  22. Fort Greene Met Fan Says:

    Thank you, IM. I don’t hate Murph, I just think he’s nothing special. On a better team he’d be lucky to sit on the bench. I like his attitude etc, but the reality is that he can only do one thing particularly well, which is hit for average, mainly singles. Every other part of his game is pretty mediocre. He has no power, speed, defensive skill or even a position where we shines. I would trade him in a heartbeat if we could get a decent pitcher in return.

    Anyway, the REAL news of the day is that Picard dropped the damages suit and is now only going after the $300 million. This means #1, the Wilpons have enough $$ to sign Reyes and whoever else they want, #2 Einhorn will be out or just get minority ownership, #3 Sandy can really do his job right. He might even be able to pawn Bay off on some other team and take the salary bite. So instead of worrying about Daniel Murphy, I’m way more interested to see what we can get for him and let’s a get a real 2nd baseman for this spot. Ka-ching, we’re in business!

  23. KMac Says:

    I think Wright gets over-rated a bit and Murph under-rated. All in all I would take Wright, but would like Murph on my team.

  24. Lord Charles Says:

    Here the thing with Murph. I think we can all agree that he is having a pretty nice year this year, and his numbers project to this:

    .304 BA, .784 OPS, 10 HR, 66 RBI

    Now compare that to Wright in 2009:

    .307 BA, .837 OPS, 10 HR 72 RBI.

    So Murphy’s best year doesn’t even match Wright in what was by far his worst year. I like Murph a lot, and would love to see him develop into a Mark DeRosa-type player (no real position, but gets 300-400 AB a season playing a bunch of different positions), but he s no where near the player that Wright is.

  25. BrooklynBill Says:

    I confess, I maybe overrating him a bit. But, I think our fan expectations of Wright’s return may be a bit overrated. I think it’s also obvious now that while he maybe the face of the franchise, he is not the leader of this team. So, some of his intangible value has taken a hit, in least in my opinion…

  26. BrooklynBill Says:

    LC - good post, that is a good comparison.

    Is Murph maxing out now or will he improve as his playing time increases? Can he develop more power? Can his D improve if he settles into a single position on a permanent basis? I think that is probably a good question for the Mets if they are thinking 3-5 yrs out. I’m not sure he’s peaked offensively whereas Wright seems to have peaked 3-4 years ago and has been on the decline since

    I would say that if they have any intentions whatsoever of trading Wright, then they can’t be too openly high on Murphy.

  27. Lord Charles Says:

    Don’t forget, Murphy is also 26. In baseball, you generally are what you are by that age. Sure you can improve some, but for the most part, the question at that age becomes, “how long can you maintain it,” versus, “how high is your ceiling?” Sure, some improvement can occur, but the big jumps are the exception, not the rule (especially with increased drug testing).

  28. USMF Says:

    I-Mike, I think you’ve missed the conversation the other day on Murphs fielding…

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=2b&stats=fld&lg=nl&qual=50&type=1&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0

    Looking over the Stats for Murph at 1st, 2nd and 3rd…he’s actually a better than average defender, better than Turner and even better than Tajada in some aspects. While he looks a little awkward and won’t win a GG, he’s not hurting you at all out there either.

    And for the record, Money Ball has nothing to do if you can walk or not…it’s about finding the value player available. At the time, OBP wasn’t highly regarded, everyone looked at hits, RBIs and HR’s. They found that they could sign guys that had lower numbers in the traditional stats, but walked more for less money. That’s when OBP (walks) became more important. Now everybody looks at OBP and other advanced stats so high OBP guys aren’t a value anymore.

    Murph’s a top 10 BA guy, in the top with DBLs and has a very low K rate. He’ll never hit for enough power to be a star and he’ll probably not top 100 RBIs, but he’s still a very nice player to have.

  29. Lord Charles Says:

    USMF,

    You are right about how the concept of Moneyball was to find, and take advantage of, inefficiencies in the market, but the underlying principle of that was based on sabermetric analysis. It just so happened that what was highly prized by SABR-folks also happened to be under-valued traditionally. Alderson may be a “Moneyball” guy, but he is a SABR-guy first, so the importance of OBP is probably still very high in his mind.

  30. IrishMike Says:

    I’m not as comfortable with advanced fielding stats as I am with hitting stats. Many vary considerably by player from year to year which seemingly should not be the case. Maybe I can upgrade Murph to so-so at 2nd (I realize that his awkwardness doesn’t matter if he gets the job done) but he is a terrible 1B - chasing balls 2/3 of the way to 2nd base, doing the “jump, spin and try to tag” move on a throw that he could have just caught with his foot on the bag etc. - his instincts there are bad and I know a bad first baseman when I see one.

    Money Ball the book was all about walking. Kevin Youklis the Greek God of Walks. Walk walk walk in every chapter. When people talk about a Money Ball guy they are talking about a guy who fits the descriptions in the book. At least that’s my assumption.

    I’m not recommending getting rid of Murph. He is what you said he is - a very nice player to have. Well IMO maybe just a nice player to have. Like Danny Heep was. Or Dave Magadan.

  31. USMF Says:

    True that OBP is important (Murph is in the Top 30 for OBP)…so OPS and a ton of other stats available. Now OBP isn’t the secret tool used to value players, so you don’t get the same high performance for little pay because of it.

    Just because you don’t walk, doesn’t mean you don’t have a good OBP. Murph has a decent eye and make good contact when he swings. He’ll get more balls hit into play, which leads to more base hits. It’s not like he’s swinging at bad pitches, he’s hitting the one’s he should be hitting. That’s where some of the more advanced stats come into play.

    But here’s a perfect Money Ball scenario. Someone posted Wrights and Murphs stats. Wright was slightly better with the bat (although you could argue that Murph is a better fielder).

    Now maybe Wright will be better next year, or maybe he’s on a down slide…it’s not like his 2010 or 2011 make you forget all about 09.

    Murph is younger and is on a up trend and probably won’t hit his peak for another year or so, but you can tell that he’s a .300 hitter with 10-15 HR power and can get you 90+/- RBIs.

    Wright IS the better player, BUT Wright is making 14Mil this year and 15mil in 2012 and a 16mil opting in 2013. Murph is making .422Mil and won’t be a free agent for 3-4 years.

    If you keep Muirph and Trade Wright, you’ll lose a little in offensive performance, but save 30Mil +/- over the next three years that can go to sign a pitcher or another good bat.

    That’s what money ball is.

  32. KMac Says:

    Man, you guys are making my head spin! Let’s keep it simple - Let’s Go Mets! Ya Gotta Believe!

  33. Met_Maven Says:

    I love how our big problem right now is that we have too many good infielders that we don’t know what to do with when DW comes back! If only we had the same problem with pitching!

    Stay cool fellow BMFers! Like 90% of NBA fans say: BEAT THE HEAT!

  34. BlondiesJake Says:

    Lots of good points. USMF, you are right on with the comparison in terms of cost savings with Murphy and not too much loss in overall play. I don’t want to jettison Wright, but if they could work a deal for Jimenez or similar very good starter, I would take the gamble. If not, plug Murphy in at 2B, let Duda play first until Ike returns and give more ABs to Pridie and other younger OFs, especially after dealing Beltran.

  35. BrooklynBill Says:

    Guys - this is a great discussion, clearly beats Bay bashing anytime.

    How many extra wins do the Mets have if Wright is @ 3B instead of Murph? There are 60 something games left in this season…if Wright is @ 3B we go 40-20? 35-25? I think either way, we’ll prob go around 30-30 no matter what. So if the win total is going to be about the same, why spend the extra millions now if we’re rebuilding with a 3-5 yr time horizon? Wright definitely has good value, he would likely fetch a good return in a trade, we’d save $$, and not lose much with Murph.

    Anyway, I started out wondering whether if Wright gets off to a cold start, does TC consider a lefty/righty platoon with them. For right to find his pre-2007 form, he needs to pick up his game vs. RHs. Any good RH pitcher with a clue, will get him out…a sizable amount of them unproductive strikeouts.

  36. Fort Greene Met Fan Says:

    Well if Wright and Murphy aren’t that different, why would another team want to pay for Wright? What would make him valuable to someone else?

    I also think we should consider that Murphy hasn’t been an everyday player in the bigs until this season, and never at only one position. You could make the case that he will be better as an everyday guy, but there isn’t any proof until he actually has a couple of seasons hitting .300 and not being a liability in the field. At least with DW you have some data about what you’re getting.

  37. BrooklynBill Says:

    FGMF - I think the data on Wright over the last few seasons is part of the equation…he is Albert Pujols vs Lefties! But he turns into Ruben Tejada vs Righties!

    pre-2007, he was about the same. Wright also used to be one of the better two strike hitters in baseball, but that ability has also diminished.

    I think we use the 2 Gold Gloves, 5 time All-Star, etc to pump up his value. Let’s be honest, he is not a Gold Glove 3B…

  38. ProfessorReyes Says:

    I think BBill hit the nail on the head, it could come down to some WAR-like thing.

    But at a certain point even that won’t matter as long as TC’s 2011 record stays above 500.

  39. Fort Greene Met Fan Says:

    Right—so if that’s true, what makes you think we can get a lot for him? I wonder what his value is coming off an injury, etc, even with his numbers against lefties. I am hoping he can finish the season strong. One part of the equation is, “we can save money by keeping Murph and trading Wright.” The other side is, can you get back anything worthwhile for Wright or are you just trying to dump salary?

    As I said the other day, if we lose Beltran and Bay still sucks, and we don’t add any other big bats, I think we HAVE to keep DW.

    I am very curious to know what Sandy Alderson thinks of these guys! I know he’s painted as a moneyball type GM but I don’t know if he’s going to play moneyball with the Mets.

  40. BrooklynBil Says:

    Given Beltran gets dealt, trading DW does another thing…it clearly makes this team Jose Reyes’s team. And that may influence our ability to keep him (perhaps at some home team discount).
    When you Google NY Mets, it’ll say ‘did you mean Jose Reyes?’ ;) . He becomes the man!

  41. Lord Charles Says:

    Anyone notice how much closer Wright was standing to the plate in his first AB? I wonder if that was a fluke, or if he made a change when he was rehabbing.

  42. BlondiesJake Says:

    Nice to see Wright get an rbi double first AB back.

    FGMF, Wright has more value because he’s a known quantity and has produced for years. A team that can win this year or next would def take a chance on him as opposed to Murphy, who as you pointed out, doesn’t have a track record. Mets can take chance on Murphy because not concerned about this year.

  43. Fort Greene Met Fan Says:

    Of course—but does he have *enough* value right now to make a trade worth our while? I have no idea. Very curious to see how the front office proceeds…

  44. USMF Says:

    I’m not trying to justify trading Wright…I hope he comes back, plays great and enters the HOF as a Met.

    I’m not saying Murph is great either, rather very good player to have…you want to have fout or five Murphs on your team…three or four Wright/Reyes and ZERO Pelfs.

    I did notice Wright standing closer too…I hope it stays that way. I’ve always wanted Wright and Bay to move closer to the plate…both of their struggles seem oddly similar…both seem to fall behind and pull off on the outside pitch that they can’t reach.

  45. BlondiesJake Says:

    Haven’t seen where Wright is standing because despite being in NYC I don’t have tv access right now. But would be great for him to challenge the pitchers that way, Bay too.

    And I also don’t feel the Mets MUST trade Wright, and if he stayed and became a HoFer that would be awesome. I wouldn’t deal him unless I was getting a frontline starter, which seems unlikely. I merely brought it up because of the talk Jimenez might be dealt.

    However, I have figured out one thing for sure. Pelfrey is a real-life Nuke LaLoosh. He’s got a million-dollar arm but a 5-cent head. From now on, I propose we use Nuke to refer to him.

  46. USMF Says:

    Mike Pelfrey = Charlie Brown.

  47. ProfessorReyes Says:

    Keith is in rare form tonight.

    Then again, so are the Marlins.

  48. Mets Fan in London Says:

    25th anniversary of the Ray Knight-Eric Davis fight. Wow, I’m 34 and I remember that game like it was yesterday. One of the best games ever.

  49. the dude formerly known as bill l. Says:

    Mets Fan In London: totally agree. One of the best games ever.

  50. BrooklynBill Says:

    How ironic, after all the Wright-Murph talk today. See, anything Wright can do, Murph can do :)

    2H and 2 RBI a piece. Murph adds a BB and nice play, Wright Ks twice and commits an E. haha

  51. BrooklynBill Says:

    btw - another bad line for mini Pelf, trade value dwindling with every pitch.

    6 IP, 4BB, 5H, 2 of them HRs, ouch.

    Forget a trade, he’ll pitching for the Cyclones if he keeps this up…

  52. BlondiesJake Says:

    I remember watching the Eric Davis/Ray Knight on my black & white tv when I was supposed to be sleeping back in high school!

  53. andie Says:

    This was an awesome post, thanks. I added a link to your page on my site: http://www.topfishingcenter.com/featured.php Keep up the great writing

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